Weekly update…

Here are the latest Blees COT ratings released on 8/21/09 for some key markets. Remember “100? is the most extreme bullish position on the part of commercial traders (aka the “smart money”) for the last eighteen months. “0? is the most extreme bearish position:

S&P 500 Index: 57
S&P E-mini: 48
Dow Industrials: 44
Nasdaq 100: 43
Nasdaq 100 Mini: 11
Gold: 26
Silver: 61
Crude Oil: 53
Copper: 24
Corn: 91
Soybeans: 56
Sugar: 21
Wheat: 100
Cattle: 49
Hogs: 79
U.S. Dollar: 84
Cocoa: 57
Natural Gas: 88

We haven’t been posting lots of charts lately because we are waiting for some significant changes to the current trend that are worthy of a post.

Right now we are still in a Wave 2 up rally that may continue for a while longer. However we dont recommend adding new money since the bulk of the upside gains have already been in place.

Gold is still waffling back and forth in a trading range, and we are going to watch it over the next few weeks because at some point it will have to either break up or break down. It gold goes over 972 then we looking at the up trend scenario for the short term.

The seasonal factors for gold should be positive, since September is typically a strong month. The COT numbers are still week, so we want to see a major move and then review the COT numbers which will give us a clue where the big money is hedging.

Natural gas is continuing to perk up. While we hold a position in UNG, there may be issues down the road as the CTFC cracks down on speculators and non-commercial positions. This would cause the ETF’s not to be an efficient method to track a commodity. In this case, stocks would be an option but would more likely ebb and flow with the stock market.

So at this point we’ll wait and see until a decisive move occurs.