Weekend update

Here are the latest Blees COT ratings released on 8/14/09 for some key markets. Remember “100? is the most extreme bullish position on the part of commercial traders (aka the “smart money”) for the last eighteen months. “0? is the most extreme bearish position:

S&P 500 Index: 53
S&P E-mini: 53
Dow Industrials: 44
Nasdaq 100: 50
Nasdaq 100 Mini: 0
Gold: 16
Silver: 62
Crude Oil: 41
Copper: 46
Corn: 87
Soybeans: 42
Sugar: 24
Wheat: 100
Cattle: 45
Hogs: 76
U.S. Dollar: 93
Cocoa: 57
Natural Gas: 72

The COT ratings indicate weakness in Gold, and continued strength (although not as much) in the dollar. We have stayed on the sidelines while we see how things develop. We will be entering a point of resolution soon for gold, as the September is traditionally the strongest period of time. We will continue to monitor the 975 area, for a decisive close above it will negate the bearish outlook at least for the time being. This would mostly coincide with a dollar breakdown, which may be forming a bottom, or ready to break down again.

The general market may undergo a correction, but there also exists a high probability for it to continue higher. We have already met the low end of the initial price targets, but some price targets go up to 11,500 for the dow, 1100 for the S&P. Therefore there may be room for some short term opportunities should we get a nice sized correction.

We’ll go over charts when we feel there has been a decisive move in either direction, or an important trend change. Right now we are just going to stand pat and stay pretty much in cash until we can identify a nice entry point.